Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D9 0xd96e…c4c8 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$197 (+6%) realized +$205 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$265
sports 20% +$241
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 43% -10.2%
≤30d 14 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 43% -10.2%
all 14 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 43% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 43% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 29% -18.8%
15% -35.1% 14% -26.6%
20% -41.5% 14% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$95 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $556 +$296 +53%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $914 −$596 -65%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $422 +$67 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $112 +$144 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $333 +$95 +29%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $91 +$31 +34%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 39m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $198 40m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $551 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $19 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $302 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $17 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 56¢ $299 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $107 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $153 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $167 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $412 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $91 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 28h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $334 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $95 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.03 · official $92.03 (match) · 50 history records