Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd96a…eb9b other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,920 (+23%) realized +$1,947 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$833per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$319
14 days+$834
30 days+$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$1,033
tech 36% +$515
world 15% −$27
sports 12% +$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 100% +19.1%
≤30d 4 +24.1% +12.2% 100% 100% +9.2%
≤90d 5 +27.0% +14.9% 100% 100% +13.6%
all 9 +18.6% +7.3% 78% 78% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 78% +14.3%
10% -3.0% 56% +3.3%
15% -12.3% 44% -6.7%
20% -20.9% 11% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$63 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.83 per $1 lost it wins $15.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$1,947
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage239d
Avg bet$833
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,007 +$319 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,812 +$210 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $708 +$124 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $509 +$181 +36%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 18 $1,476 +$575 +39%
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 15 $286 −$94 -33%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 13 $722 +$262 +36%
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? Dec 10 $491 +$321 +65%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 09 $87 −$32 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 0m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $390 2m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $494 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $1,007 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 94¢ $2,022 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 86¢ $831 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 74¢ $690 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 72¢ $303 26d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 72¢ $404 26d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 53¢ $509 26d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 85¢ $905 30d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 82¢ $906 31d
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 30¢ $192 157d
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 157d
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 157d
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 43¢ $86 157d
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 94¢ $984 159d
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 58¢ $87 192d
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 69¢ $207 192d
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 70¢ $140 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.08 · official $73.08 (match) · 54 history records