Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd966…c198 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
politics 17% $0
other 17% $0
crypto 16% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 14% -7.9%
≤30d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 12 +1.4% -8.2% 58% 8% -8.4%
all 33 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage271d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 18 $30 +$4 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $29 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 02 $14 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $17 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $15 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 33h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $22 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $11 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $14 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $18 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $27 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $21 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $3 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $8 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $22 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $6 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $6 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $29 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records