Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd964…6523 crypto 505 markets active 20h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%104W / 401L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day86.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -47.6% -52.5% 21% 21% -11.2%
≤30d 505 -43.5% -48.9% 21% 21% -9.8%
≤90d 505 -43.5% -48.9% 21% 21% -9.8%
all 505 -43.5% -48.9% 21% 21% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.9% 21% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -53.8% 21% -18.4%
15% -58.2% 20% -26.3%
20% -62.3% 20% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses104 / 401
Open positions0
Markets (closed)505 / 505
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 505 Trades
no open positions (387 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 771 history records