Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd963…fd5a sports 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,340 (-12%) realized −$2,422 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%96W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$34
14 days−$285
30 days−$2,768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,328
other 18% −$267
crypto 5% −$47
world 3% +$515
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +20.3% +8.8% 50% 39% -9.0%
≤30d 183 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 36% -25.3%
≤90d 222 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 37% -19.9%
all 222 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 37% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 37% -19.9%
10% -21.9% 32% -27.6%
15% -29.4% 27% -34.6%
20% -36.3% 24% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$61 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$2,422
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses96 / 126
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage50d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $220 $302 +$82 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $231 +$368 +159%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $52 −$45 -87%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 $0 -0%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $315 −$84 -26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $129 +$97 +75%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $148 −$124 -84%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $156 −$155 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 −$79 -87%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $120 −$97 -81%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $110 +$90 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $121 −$96 -79%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $23 −$21 -93%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $128 −$73 -57%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$155 +376%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $411 +$471 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $120 −$110 -92%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $17 +$44 +260%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $12 +$88 +733%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $69 +$41 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $106 −$6 -6%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $121 +$79 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $57 +$21 +37%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 −$25 -76%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$82 +456%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $79 +$408 +514%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $72 +$57 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 −$24 -50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $458 −$395 -86%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $64 −$52 -81%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $241 +$20 +8%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$29 +144%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $82 +$49 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $79 +$97 +122%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $90 −$68 -75%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $93 −$66 -72%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $91 −$63 -69%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$10 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $191 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$21 +27%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$25 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $76 27m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 69¢ $9 27m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $0 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 30m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $104 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 40m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 41m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 41m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 41m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 42m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 32¢ $24 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 32¢ $139 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 38¢ $35 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 38¢ $33 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $226 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $127 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 32¢ $82 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $34 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.49 · official $302.49 (match) · 1100 history records