Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd95c…7dd1 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$15 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate26%6W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$19
other 22% −$2
world 11% −$19
tech 1% −$4
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -35.9% -42.0% 36% 21% +16.5%
≤30d 22 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 14% -10.1%
≤90d 23 -43.1% -48.5% 26% 13% -10.6%
all 23 -43.1% -48.5% 26% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 13% -10.6%
10% -53.5% 13% -19.1%
15% -58.0% 13% -27.0%
20% -62.1% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$16 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses6 / 17
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage37d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $67 +$77 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$38 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $45 +$49 +109%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $88 +$145 +165%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? May 30 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 30 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? May 30 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $47 −$18 -39%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $13 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $67 1h
Spread: Croatia (-3.5) BUY Croatia $3 1h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia $10 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $39 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $94 2h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $15 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $45 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $13 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $88 27h
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 28h
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 28h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $55 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $4 5d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC $21 18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 18d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 18d
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes $9 18d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $4 18d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 18d
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY Yes $29 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 18d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 25d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $26 25d
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on Decembe BUY Yes 40¢ $3 31d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 31d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $47 31d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 37d
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.76 (match) · 53 history records