Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D9 0xd95c…fdae other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$37 (+9%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% $0
sports 40% +$38
politics 5% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +2.4% -7.3% 3% 3% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -1.7%
10% -16.2% 3% -11.1%
15% -24.3% 3% -19.7%
20% -31.7% 3% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$0 · ×1094.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×54.71 per $1 lost it wins $54.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage544d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Sep 18 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $5 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Red Wings Apr 07 $34 +$38 +113%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 23d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 23d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 48d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 48d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 142d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 142d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 142d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 142d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 92¢ $8 172d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 92¢ $8 172d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 200d
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 200d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 232d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 232d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 232d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 232d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 248d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 255d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 266d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 267d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 269d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 306d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 306d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 306d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 306d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 306d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 330d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 330d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records