Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd958…f864 crypto 1033 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,375 (-46%) realized −$2,620 · open +$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%378W / 652L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$421
sports 9% +$311
other 3% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -18.1% -25.9% 14% 12% -18.4%
≤30d 50 -18.1% -25.9% 14% 12% -18.4%
≤90d 50 -18.1% -25.9% 14% 12% -18.4%
all 1030 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 33% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 33% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 30% -26.1%
15% -36.3% 27% -33.3%
20% -42.6% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized−$2,620
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses378 / 652
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1030 / 1033
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 78¢ $475 $786 +$311 (+66%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $128 $64 −$64 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$43 +1585%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$6 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 58m
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 58m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $203 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.64 · official $850.82 (match) · 3500 history records