Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd951…876d crypto 1355 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate91%1246W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$45
14 days−$55
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -22.0% -29.4% 65% 62% -35.4%
≤30d 351 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 55% -11.2%
≤90d 1347 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 19% -10.4%
all 1364 -1.8% -11.2% 91% 18% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 18% -10.4%
10% -19.7% 6% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1246 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1364 / 1355
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1364 Trades
no open positions (104 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.18 · official $11.18 (match) · 3500 history records