trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +57% |
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +109% |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $2 | +$2 | +82% |
| Spread: United States (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +16% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner | Jun 12 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -57% |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +42% |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +44% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +37% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Dec 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Dec 28 | $1 | +$1 | +104% |
| Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? | Nov 02 | $1 | +$1 | +49% |
| Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? | Oct 30 | $2 | −$1 | -44% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 3 | Oct 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 22 | -25.1% | -32.2% | 45% | 41% | -32.5% |
| ≤30d | 22 | -25.1% | -32.2% | 45% | 41% | -32.5% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -25.1% | -32.2% | 45% | 41% | -32.5% |
| all | 28 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 43% | 39% | -33.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.5% | 39% | -33.6% |
| 10% | -39.9% | 32% | -39.9% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 29% | -45.7% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 14% | -51.0% |