Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd94f…ee62 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 218d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$354 (-4%) realized −$38 · open −$316
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%42W / 70L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 218d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,591
other 11% −$84
crypto 4% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +474.1% +419.4% 50% 50% +348.0%
≤30d 64 +104.3% +84.8% 34% 34% +55.8%
≤90d 98 +67.0% +51.1% 36% 36% +37.1%
all 112 +57.1% +42.1% 38% 38% +20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.1% 38% +20.8%
10% +28.5% 35% +9.2%
15% +16.1% 34% -1.3%
20% +4.7% 31% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +98% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$61 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$316
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses42 / 70
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 116
History coverage218d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes $34 $23 −$11 (-33%)
Mexico leading at halftime? Yes 35¢ $305 $0 −$304 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $128 −$125 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $138 +$312 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $70 +$980 +1402%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $81 +$1,755 +2161%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 +$315 +474%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $66 −$65 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $220 −$217 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $90 +$575 +636%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $47 +$48 +103%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $39 −$4 -11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $33 −$32 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Thespa Gunma end in a draw? Jun 07 $34 −$33 -98%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $35 −$2 -5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $110 −$107 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $128 −$17 -14%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $66 +$62 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $67 −$65 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $45 −$43 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $80 −$79 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 06 $53 +$27 +52%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Yufei Ren Jun 05 $199 −$197 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $117 +$280 +241%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $67 +$50 +74%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $68 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$32 -61%
ITF Luan: Fanming Meng vs Tianhui Zhang Jun 04 $112 +$198 +176%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $10 +$263 +2557%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $42 +$98 +234%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $69 −$69 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$19 +37%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $34 −$33 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $22 −$22 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud end in a draw? May 22 $30 +$36 +122%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a dr May 21 $38 −$37 -98%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $67 −$66 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 21 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 21 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $82 +$69 +84%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $35 15m
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $310 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $128 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $93 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 30¢ $138 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY $206 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New BUY $70 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 27¢ $97 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 202 BUY $103 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY $81 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 17¢ $66 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $66 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $66 7d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 10¢ $31 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 42¢ $68 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $51 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $25 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $76 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $618 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 17¢ $53 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $21 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $21 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline SELL Spurs 99¢ $95 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 48¢ $47 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $47 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $49 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $35 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $39 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.41 · official $29.16 · 218 history records