Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd94f…b250 sports 1747 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1735W / 4L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$12
other 45% +$5
politics 2% +$1
tech 1% −$5
world 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 818 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 1739 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1739 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 1739 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1735 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1739 / 1747
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Spinning" during UFC 250? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Armbar" or "Arm Bar" during UFC 250? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 99¢ 52¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" dur Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Kento Shiogai: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Brandon Nimmo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Junya Itō: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Hiroki Itō: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Pedro Vite: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Parfait Guiagon: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Parfait Guiagon: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
CD Universidad Católica leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daichi Kamada: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Stanger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Jearl Margaritha: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Virgil van Dijk: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Frenkie de Jong: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ryan Gravenberch: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 2 - 1 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 3+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Virgil van Dijk: 2+ assists Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 2+ goals Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3m
Nicolas Pépé: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 8m
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11m
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 18m
Memphis Depay: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 33m
Will the announcers say "Armbar" or "Arm Bar" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 37m
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Kento Shiogai: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Brandon Nimmo: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
Will the announcers say "Spinning" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Hiroki Itō: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the announcers say "Knockout" or "Knock Out" or "Knocked Out" dur BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Anthony Valencia: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Parfait Guiagon: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Pedro Vite: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Parfait Guiagon: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Oumar Diakité: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 2h
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.50 · official $27.52 (match) · 3500 history records