Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd94a…055f sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,311 (-14%) realized −$2,326 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate56%48W / 38L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days−$2,248
14 days−$2,332
30 days−$2,332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,897
other 21% −$234
tech 7% −$173
world 3% −$38
culture 2% −$15
politics 2% −$1
economics 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 25% -30.7%
≤30d 57 -13.0% -21.3% 54% 28% -27.0%
≤90d 57 -13.0% -21.3% 54% 28% -27.0%
all 86 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 30% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 30% -22.4%
10% -26.1% 15% -29.8%
15% -33.3% 6% -36.6%
20% -39.8% 2% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$91 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized−$2,326
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses48 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage234d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 97¢ 100¢ $478 $493 +$15 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $441 +$47 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $381 +$60 +16%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $278 −$49 -18%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $249 −$18 -7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 −$9 -9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $880 −$879 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $78 −$20 -26%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $531 +$41 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$53 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $670 +$98 +15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$50 -25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $177 −$176 -100%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $993 −$985 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $726 +$37 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $195 +$29 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $569 +$70 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $97 −$96 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$4 -4%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$13 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $140 +$5 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $31 +$1 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $493 +$23 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $140 +$4 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $977 +$18 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $210 +$30 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $191 −$190 -99%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $57 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $73 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $82 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $200 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $488 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $40 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $150 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $231 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $77 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $98 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $201 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $82 4d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $64 4d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $103 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $78 4d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $40 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $230 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $196 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.78 · official $492.78 (match) · 399 history records