Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd94a…2728 crypto 645 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,987 (-8%) realized −$2,972 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%171W / 468L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$422
7 days+$431
14 days+$431
30 days+$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$418
sports 10% −$1,151
other 5% −$802
economics 1% −$230
weather 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +1.9% -7.8% 36% 27% -2.5%
≤30d 149 +5.1% -4.9% 35% 28% -5.4%
≤90d 194 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 23% -12.9%
all 639 -4.2% -13.3% 27% 23% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 23% -16.8%
10% -21.6% 20% -24.8%
15% -29.2% 16% -32.1%
20% -36.1% 14% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$49 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$2,972
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses171 / 468
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)639 / 645
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) DR Congo 2¢ 2¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) DR Congo 0¢ 0¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+51%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $132 +$557 +421%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$86 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$212 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$30 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$13 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $161 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$26 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$21 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$31 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $66 −$41 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$54 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$10 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$15 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 3m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $16 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 13m
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 0¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 26m
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 0¢ $5 27m
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 2¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $285 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $68 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $315 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.68 · official $290.69 (match) · 3500 history records