Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd948…e777 crypto 774 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-0%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate67%522W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -3.8% -12.9% 65% 13% -9.5%
≤30d 547 -2.0% -11.3% 69% 13% -9.6%
≤90d 774 -2.5% -11.7% 67% 14% -9.7%
all 774 -2.5% -11.7% 67% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 14% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 7% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses522 / 252
Open positions0
Markets (closed)774 / 774
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 774 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $157 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $119 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records