Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd947…7451 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,570 (+4%) realized +$2,097 · open +$473
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate90%18W / 2L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$3,239per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,257
7 days+$4,077
14 days+$4,835
30 days+$2,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$2,455
politics 37% −$1,487
other 21% +$2,925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.9% +11.2% 100% 90% +9.4%
≤30d 19 +14.1% +3.3% 89% 79% -6.3%
≤90d 20 +14.6% +3.7% 90% 80% -5.0%
all 20 +14.6% +3.7% 90% 80% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 80% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 50% -14.1%
15% -15.3% 10% -22.4%
20% -23.6% 5% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$4,044) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$504 vs −$2,823 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$3,563
Realized+$2,097
Unrealized+$473
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses18 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage81d
Avg bet$3,239
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $2,520 $2,998 +$478 (+19%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 29 $840 +$160 +19%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $3,148 +$847 +27%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 29 $840 +$159 +19%
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Jun 29 $3,768 +$203 +5%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $1,006 +$246 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 28 $4,044 +$451 +11%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $810 +$190 +24%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $840 +$160 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,260 +$710 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,930 +$950 +49%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 22 $21,607 −$2,639 -12%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $5,239 +$1,309 +25%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $810 +$190 +24%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,230 +$628 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,964 +$639 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,806 +$629 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $243 +$2 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $3,007 −$3,007 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,819 +$440 +24%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $4,961 +$1,152 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2,520 48m
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $3,996 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $860 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 76¢ $676 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 76¢ $84 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 76¢ $1,528 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Daniel Merida Aguilar 100¢ $999 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 84¢ $840 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $1,472 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 100¢ $523 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 84¢ $813 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 84¢ $6 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 80¢ $1,006 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 84¢ $10 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 99¢ $16 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 99¢ $974 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $386 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $74 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $29 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $5 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $2 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $10 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $7 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $79 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 84¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,563.40 · official $3,563.50 (match) · 312 history records