Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd946…1259 crypto 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-2%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate67%65W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$5
politics 31% −$20
sports 9% −$110
other 1% −$5
culture 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 97 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 21% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 21% -10.9%
10% -19.2% 20% -19.5%
15% -27.0% 20% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses65 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage602d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? May 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28? May 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? Apr 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 03 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? Feb 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 4? Feb 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? Jan 31 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? Jan 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? Jan 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 9? Jan 11 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 31? Jan 05 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 27? Dec 30 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 25? Dec 26 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on December 16? Dec 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 11? Dec 12 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 3? Dec 04 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 25? Nov 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 17? Nov 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $111 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Nov 01 $13 −$13 -100%
James Madison vs. Texas State Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $8 −$8 -100%
49ers vs. Texans Oct 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Vikings vs. Chargers Oct 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $36 +$15 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $52 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $103 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $102 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $102 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $102 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $102 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $128 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $127 122d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $124 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $125 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $122 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $124 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $122 144d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $122 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $123 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $124 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $124 150d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $123 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.46 · official $51.46 (match) · 220 history records