Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd945…6118 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-22%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$3
sports 27% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 17% -33.9%
≤30d 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 17% -33.9%
≤90d 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 17% -33.9%
all 6 -37.6% -43.5% 33% 17% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 17% -33.9%
10% -48.9% 17% -40.2%
15% -53.9% 17% -46.0%
20% -58.4% 0% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$51 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $125 −$10 -8%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $89 −$65 -72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$29 +42%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $96 −$96 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $96 −$32 -34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $191 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 62¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $25 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $89 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 58¢ $90 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 21¢ $60 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $70 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $200 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $191 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $25.00 · 25 history records