Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D9 0xd943…195c other 29 markets active 8d ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24,927 (+20%) realized +$24,927 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate82%23W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4,298per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$4,766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$24,820
tech 0% +$14
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% +$3
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +46.1% +32.1% 60% 30% +20.0%
≤90d 13 +29.5% +17.2% 62% 31% +20.0%
all 28 +23.3% +11.5% 82% 43% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 43% +8.5%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 25% -1.9%
15% -8.9% 21% -11.4%
20% -17.8% 14% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,080 vs −$0 · ×3012.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13859.7 per $1 lost it wins $13859.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$24,927
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses23 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage207d
Avg bet$4,298
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,704 +$470 +8%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $97 +$295 +304%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $18 +$30 +164%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $8,784 +$3,971 +45%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 +1%
US recession by end of 2026? May 14 $12 +$3 +23%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Feb 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? Jan 24 $3 +$2 +47%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Dec 18 $4,450 +$550 +12%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 18 $10,958 +$1,803 +16%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17? Dec 18 $32,199 +$203 +1%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Dec 17 $200 +$41 +21%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? Dec 16 $14,160 +$7,833 +55%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? Dec 08 $2 +$1 +52%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15? Dec 08 $318 +$5 +1%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Trump out as President by March 31? Dec 01 $18 +$1 +3%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30? Nov 30 $3,297 +$166 +5%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $44,196 +$9,452 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 8d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 91¢ $1 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $1 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 8d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1 16d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $1 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 84¢ $1 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 16d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,314 28d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 28d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $203 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $188 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $480 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,873 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $474 29d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 29d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 30d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $196 30d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $264 30d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $4,027 31d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 31d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $96 32d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.07 · official $5.07 (match) · 334 history records