Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd941…9625 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized −$89 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,396per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$62
world 23% +$20
sports 19% +$380
other 11% +$192
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.9% -2.3% 100% 40% -5.2%
≤30d 5 +7.9% -2.3% 100% 40% -5.2%
≤90d 7 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 29% -7.1%
all 7 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 29% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -16.0%
15% -21.8% 0% -24.1%
20% -29.5% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,732
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2,396
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? No 91¢ 100¢ $1,365 $1,499 +$134 (+10%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? No 91¢ 91¢ $233 $233 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,479 +$232 +16%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $942 +$57 +6%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $2,432 +$148 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$6 +11%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 19 $5,040 +$37 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $5,023 +$20 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 12 $4,998 +$25 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 91¢ $354 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 91¢ $1,011 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,710 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? SELL No 100¢ $2,580 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $234 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,479 5h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $1,490 5h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 94¢ $942 5h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 94¢ $942 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 6h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5,076 6h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2,371 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $570 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2,093 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $5,023 38d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $4,998 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,732.27 · official $1,732.27 (match) · 21 history records