Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd93b…c902 world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%35W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$16
politics 24% +$16
other 17% $0
sports 12% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 67 -2.8% -12.1% 31% 0% -10.0%
all 97 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses35 / 62
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage521d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $61 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $61 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $68 −$11 -16%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $110 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $68 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $24 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $29 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $3 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $10 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $5 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $6 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $28 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $4 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $24 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $7 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.62 · official $0.00 (match) · 380 history records