Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd93b…cd48 sports 691 markets active 3h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,649 (-12%) realized −$22,649 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%349W / 337L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$2,769est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$5,820
other 5% −$1,711
crypto 1% −$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.6% -21.8% 36% 29% -37.1%
≤30d 159 -3.2% -12.4% 47% 39% -20.6%
≤90d 548 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 35% -14.2%
all 686 -3.4% -12.6% 51% 34% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 34% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 30% -21.7%
15% -28.6% 27% -29.2%
20% -35.6% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$226 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized−$22,649
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses349 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,769
Open positions5
Markets (closed)686 / 691
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$267
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $308 $297 −$10 (-3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $229 $225 −$4 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 14¢ 16¢ $134 $154 +$20 (+15%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $111 $106 −$5 (-5%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Los Angeles Thieves 69¢ 68¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $92 +$5 +6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $19 +$121 +619%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $190 +$310 +163%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $142 −$142 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $2,058 +$44 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 24 $340 −$340 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $519 −$519 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 24 $639 −$639 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,063 −$1,063 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1,010 −$993 -98%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $372 +$114 +31%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $42 −$4 -8%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $519 −$438 -84%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $402 +$444 +110%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,492 +$471 +32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,828 +$1,281 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $834 −$834 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $881 −$881 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 19 $757 −$757 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$19 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$24 +137%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $849 +$1,221 +144%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $52 +$55 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $843 +$912 +108%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,216 +$522 +43%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 17 $69 −$55 -80%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 17 $265 −$265 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,366 −$4,366 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $315 −$193 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $236 +$109 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $205 +$205 +100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $468 +$657 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $775 +$440 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,024 +$468 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $644 +$117 +18%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $51 +$74 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $75 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $150 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $97 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $16 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $56 3h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $0 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $14 5h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $22 5h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $974 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $39 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $81 5h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 38¢ $38 13h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 40¢ $22 13h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 39¢ $20 13h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Wi BUY Los Angeles Thieves 69¢ $54 15h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 76¢ $372 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,063 26h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $477 28h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $1 28h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $41 28h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $82 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $519 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $28 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $352 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.19 · official $835.19 (match) · 3500 history records