Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd93b…7ffc crypto 793 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$296 (-2%) realized −$296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%349W / 444L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$165
14 days−$120
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$717
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -7.0% -15.8% 42% 33% -18.8%
≤30d 334 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 34% -11.3%
≤90d 636 -5.6% -14.6% 42% 30% -14.0%
all 793 -4.6% -13.7% 44% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 25% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 18% -21.2%
15% -29.5% 13% -28.8%
20% -36.4% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses349 / 444
Open positions0
Markets (closed)793 / 793
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 793 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records