Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd93a…2f96 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$4
other 28% +$3
politics 22% $0
economics 10% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 24% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 24% 0% -10.3%
all 45 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage324d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -8%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$2 +6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $49 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 09 $9 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $80 $0 -0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $32 15h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $31 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $30 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $16 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.39 · official $30.39 (match) · 155 history records