Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd939…9045 sports 187 markets active 6h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$739 (-10%) realized −$757 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%79W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$667
14 days−$724
30 days−$647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$498
other 7% −$308
world 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -17.0% -24.9% 45% 42% -57.6%
≤30d 172 -13.6% -21.9% 43% 40% -18.3%
≤90d 182 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 40% -20.2%
all 182 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 40% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 40% -20.2%
10% -30.0% 39% -27.9%
15% -36.8% 37% -34.8%
20% -43.0% 32% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$34 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$757
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses79 / 103
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions5
Markets (closed)182 / 187
History coverage39d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 98¢ 88¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $9 $31 +$22 (+235%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 55¢ 56¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$17 +117%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 +$10 +89%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$12 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$2 +140%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$12 -92%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $12 +$9 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$6 +90%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$14 -89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$16 +135%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$4 +56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$19 +244%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +124%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +74%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$3 +83%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $45 −$42 -93%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$25 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $355 −$320 -90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $67 −$55 -82%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 78¢ $1 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $2 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 56¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 52¢ $1 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $4 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $2 19h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $1 19h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $3 19h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 36¢ $8 21h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $2 22h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $3 22h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $21 31h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2 34h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 34h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 35h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $2 35h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 51¢ $5 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $2 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 50¢ $1 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 47¢ $2 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $8 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $2 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 43¢ $5 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $7 37h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $19 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 52¢ $2 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $3 39h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.50 · official $96.50 (match) · 812 history records