Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D9 0xd938…885d sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$452 (+26%) realized +$454 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$532
other 23% +$237
crypto 15% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 40% -16.2%
≤30d 15 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 40% -16.2%
≤90d 15 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 40% -16.2%
all 15 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 40% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 40% -16.2%
10% -15.0% 40% -24.2%
15% -23.2% 40% -31.5%
20% -30.7% 40% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$107 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$454
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $510 −$503 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 +$247 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $147 +$253 +172%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $183 −$179 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 +$93 +107%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $97 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 53¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $311 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 11h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $72 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $101 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $147 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 21¢ $41 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $21 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $51 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $47 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $203 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $183 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $180 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $87 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.37 · official $48.37 (match) · 28 history records