Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D9 0xd935…bc4b world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 18% −$1
sports 8% +$8
crypto 7% +$11
finance 6% $0
weather 6% $0
politics 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.4%
all 29 +4.4% -5.6% 52% 7% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 7% -6.7%
10% -14.6% 7% -15.6%
15% -22.8% 7% -23.8%
20% -30.4% 7% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.01 per $1 lost it wins $8.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage486d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $41 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $4 +$10 +221%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 20? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 15 $18 $0 +1%
Wagner vs. St. Francis (PA) Mar 05 $19 −$1 -5%
Marshall vs. Old Dominion Mar 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $37 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $37 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $40 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $40 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $16 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $14 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $7 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $37 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $31 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $31 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $17 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records