Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd933…4e0a sports 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+3%) realized +$129 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%441W / 281L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$35
other 19% +$190
crypto 9% −$60
world 0% +$8
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +0.2% -9.3% 74% 52% -7.0%
≤30d 159 +4.1% -5.8% 70% 62% -5.0%
≤90d 510 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 59% -6.5%
all 722 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 56% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 56% -7.6%
10% -16.0% 45% -16.5%
15% -24.1% 34% -24.6%
20% -31.5% 24% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses441 / 281
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)722 / 723
History coverage109d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 722 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $4 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$2 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 $0 +20%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $3 +$1 +28%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 84¢ $2 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $2 30h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $2 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 35h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 76¢ $2 35h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 92¢ $2 46h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $2 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $2 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 83¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.74 · official $5.74 (match) · 1632 history records