Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd932…af3c crypto 426 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$157 (+1%) realized +$188 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate51%213W / 204L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$170
14 days−$65
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$502
world 16% −$267
sports 11% +$134
other 6% −$113
politics 5% −$129
weather 1% −$146
finance 0% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -3.0% -12.2% 45% 39% -14.1%
≤30d 350 -2.4% -11.7% 59% 38% -8.4%
≤90d 417 -7.2% -16.0% 51% 32% -9.3%
all 417 -7.2% -16.0% 51% 32% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 32% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 23% -17.9%
15% -31.4% 17% -25.9%
20% -38.1% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$188
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses213 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions9
Markets (closed)417 / 426
History coverage52d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 57¢ 62¢ $60 $65 +$6 (+9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 47¢ 86¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+83%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 76¢ 71¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 26¢ $37 $9 −$28 (-75%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ $30 $6 −$23 (-79%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -17%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$6 +37%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $27 +$6 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$8 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$2 +11%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$26 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $40 −$14 -35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$5 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$17 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $265 −$6 -2%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $62 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$23 -46%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $65 −$6 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$24 +474%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $42 −$11 -27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$4 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $37 −$6 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $183 +$14 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $121 −$14 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 −$3 -5%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 25m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 76¢ $20 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 57m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $5 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 83¢ $15 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 81¢ $27 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $28 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $19 14h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 90¢ $15 15h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 88¢ $15 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $23 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 60¢ $15 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.02 · official $222.08 (match) · 1271 history records