Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd931…6115 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$898 (+3%) realized +$741 · open +$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$805per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$4,744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$1,206
tech 11% −$608
other 8% −$916
world 3% −$179
sports 1% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 33% +7.0%
≤30d 11 -23.6% -30.9% 18% 9% -15.2%
≤90d 21 -41.5% -47.1% 14% 10% -26.0%
all 35 -30.7% -37.3% 23% 17% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 17% -11.6%
10% -43.3% 11% -20.1%
15% -48.8% 9% -27.8%
20% -53.8% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$949) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$378 vs −$133 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$4,744
Realized+$741
Unrealized+$157
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage157d
Avg bet$805
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 52¢ $1,428 $1,557 +$129 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 40¢ $900 $1,091 +$192 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $676 $1,028 +$352 (+52%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $1,498 $1,020 −$479 (-32%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $85 $48 −$37 (-44%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $19 −$6 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $811 +$605 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $749 −$312 -42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $1,393 −$77 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 06 $306 −$36 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 06 $511 −$180 -35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 03 $1,000 −$72 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,842 −$315 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $119 −$119 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 28 $154 +$11 +7%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $47 −$5 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 10 $211 −$53 -25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? May 07 $1,099 +$191 +17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $43 −$33 -78%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Apr 28 $192 −$167 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $949 −$949 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Apr 22 $699 −$594 -85%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 19 $1,002 −$59 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Apr 12 $64 −$40 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 2? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $5,727 +$1,479 +26%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Mar 16 $988 −$70 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 07 $200 −$68 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 08 $200 −$82 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 06 $90 −$4 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 06 $624 +$377 +60%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $170 +$81 +48%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 02 $109 −$18 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $2,015 +$170 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $130 −$70 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 29 $680 +$111 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $645 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 29h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $249 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $498 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $235 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $268 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $661 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $315 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $420 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $89 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $16 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $391 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $446 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $145 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1,145 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $472 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $578 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $262 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $88 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $85 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 66¢ $962 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $354 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 46¢ $270 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 30¢ $332 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 44¢ $511 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 15¢ $928 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $429 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,743.55 · official $4,742.91 (match) · 273 history records