Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd92c…c42b other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$348 (+9%) realized +$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate90%72W / 8L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$13
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$317
finance 8% +$26
world 0% +$3
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 8 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤90d 18 +13.7% +2.9% 94% 22% -5.7%
all 80 +26.9% +14.8% 90% 24% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 24% -1.8%
10% +3.8% 14% -11.2%
15% -6.2% 8% -19.7%
20% -15.4% 8% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.34 per $1 lost it wins $7.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses72 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage177d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $129 +$2 +2%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $27 +$2 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $32 +$3 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $40 +$4 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $32 +$3 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $34 +$2 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $2 +$3 +127%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $89 +$3 +3%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $15 +$2 +13%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $39 +$11 +28%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 31? Apr 01 $268 −$19 -7%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $12 +$1 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $289 +$32 +11%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $186 +$3 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 27? Mar 27 $109 +$1 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $47 +$3 +5%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 26? Mar 26 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 25 $2 +$3 +159%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 23 $49 +$1 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 20 $36 +$2 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 9? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) opening price Up or Down on January 5? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $105 +$2 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $17 $0 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $287 −$22 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $58 +$3 +6%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 16 $25 +$21 +85%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 16 $88 +$2 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 13 $87 +$1 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $83 +$5 +6%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 12 $33 +$3 +10%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $76 +$2 +3%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $92 +$2 +3%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $68 +$2 +3%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $69 +$6 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $127 +$2 +2%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 4? Mar 04 $101 +$3 +3%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 3? Mar 03 $16 +$1 +9%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on March 3? Mar 03 $60 +$4 +7%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $105 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 28 $53 +$7 +14%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 27 $224 +$2 +1%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 100¢ $26 1h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 94¢ $6 3h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 94¢ $8 3h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 92¢ $11 3h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Down 100¢ $132 24h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 98¢ $122 27h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 97¢ $8 27h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 100¢ $29 2d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 92¢ $12 2d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 91¢ $15 2d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 100¢ $35 6d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 92¢ $12 6d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 91¢ $20 6d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 100¢ $65 7d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 96¢ $24 7d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 95¢ $16 7d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 94¢ $10 7d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 92¢ $12 7d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 5? SELL Down 100¢ $6 18d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 97¢ $6 19d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 4? SELL Down 100¢ $44 20d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 92¢ $12 20d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 91¢ $28 20d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 2? SELL Down 100¢ $35 22d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 92¢ $12 22d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 2? BUY Down 91¢ $20 22d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 22? SELL Up 100¢ $37 33d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 95¢ $19 33d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Up 91¢ $15 33d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on April 9? SELL Down 100¢ $92 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 266 history records