Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd92c…dd9a sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,373 (-18%) realized −$15,081 · open −$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%77W / 72L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$999est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$346
7 days−$2,884
14 days−$12,776
30 days−$15,381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$13,921
crypto 16% −$2,120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.5% -19.0% 41% 41% -28.4%
≤30d 119 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 47% -26.5%
≤90d 119 -10.0% -18.6% 51% 47% -26.5%
all 149 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 47% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 47% -26.5%
10% -25.0% 44% -33.5%
15% -32.3% 39% -40.0%
20% -38.9% 32% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$553) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$623 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$588
Realized−$15,081
Unrealized−$292
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses77 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$999
Open positions4
Markets (closed)149 / 153
History coverage112d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 68¢ 74¢ $476 $514 +$38 (+8%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 98¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Playoffs Johnny Speeds 78¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Infinite 40¢ 0¢ $278 $0 −$278 (-100%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner MODUS 18¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$25 +101%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $38 +$42 +109%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $246 −$242 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $55 −$54 -98%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $79 −$77 -98%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $1,075 −$1,067 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $245 +$499 +204%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $173 +$166 +96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $3,016 +$2,696 +89%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $236 +$164 +70%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $192 +$89 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $2,533 −$2,501 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $503 −$503 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $2,431 −$2,397 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $731 −$694 -95%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $859 −$845 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $441 −$436 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $816 +$2,331 +286%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $76 +$49 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 +$32 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $947 −$920 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $633 +$298 +47%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $647 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2,799 −$2,758 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,245 −$1,238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $860 −$860 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $408 +$153 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $640 −$640 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5,349 +$2,362 +44%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5,516 −$5,516 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,842 +$2,700 +95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,398 +$1,479 +106%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $163 −$159 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,097 −$1,086 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $799 +$448 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $374 +$412 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $527 −$527 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $476 +$556 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6,978 −$6,843 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,906 +$3,517 +90%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,708 −$2,673 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,822 −$1,800 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 68¢ $481 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 54m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 98¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play BUY Johnny Speeds 78¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play BUY Johnny Speeds 78¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 18¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 46¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 39¢ $135 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 39¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 39¢ $113 1h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 39¢ $89 4h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 45¢ $157 4h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 48¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 48¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 47¢ $24 6h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 57¢ $40 10h
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ARETE 27¢ $55 10h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY So:sweet 30¢ $76 10h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY So:sweet 29¢ $3 10h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 42¢ $563 3d
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 42¢ $25 3d
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 44¢ $487 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $745 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL Grind Back 100¢ $339 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 51¢ $59 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 51¢ $109 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $81 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $161 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.26 · official $588.26 (match) · 738 history records