Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd92a…7a78 crypto 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+7%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%148W / 75L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 +4.1% -5.8% 67% 67% -4.3%
≤30d 223 +3.6% -6.3% 66% 66% -4.4%
≤90d 223 +3.6% -6.3% 66% 66% -4.4%
all 223 +3.6% -6.3% 66% 66% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 66% -4.4%
10% -15.2% 66% -13.6%
15% -23.4% 66% -21.9%
20% -30.9% 65% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses148 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 473 history records