Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd929…168c crypto 1218 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$174 (-4%) realized −$171 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%595W / 589L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$26
14 days+$60
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$73
politics 5% −$130
other 3% −$59
economics 1% −$11
sports 1% −$7
world 1% −$29
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +3.3% -6.5% 60% 60% -4.4%
≤30d 737 +3.6% -6.2% 60% 60% -8.6%
≤90d 1184 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -15.7%
all 1184 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 50% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -23.8%
15% -29.3% 49% -31.1%
20% -36.3% 45% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses595 / 589
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1184 / 1218
History coverage84d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.06 · official $3.06 (match) · 2864 history records