Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D9 0xd928…5f48 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized −$575 · open +$577

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit5%portable

Net worth$652now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$7

7 days+$7

14 days−$5

30 days−$5

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+2.3%	-7.5%	57%	57%	+1.2%
≤30d	16	-14.8%	-22.9%	38%	38%	-13.3%
≤90d	16	-14.8%	-22.9%	38%	38%	-13.3%
all	16	-14.8%	-22.9%	38%	38%	-13.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.9%	38%	-13.3%
10%	-30.3%	38%	-21.6%
15%	-37.0%	38%	-29.2%
20%	-43.2%	31%	-36.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late -11% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.89 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$652

Realized−$575

Unrealized+$577

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage10d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	0¢	8¢	$5	$408	+$403 (+8400%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	5¢	70¢	$15	$189	+$174 (+1192%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$41	$41	−$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$5	+53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+69%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	$0	-5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+53%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$3	−$2	-96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$9	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$5	−$1	-12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$11	−$1	-7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5	+$5	+103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$8	+163%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$42	56m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$15	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	64¢	$25	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$26	17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	32h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	69¢	$5	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$5	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	17¢	$4	8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	58¢	$5	8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	58¢	$5	8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$5	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$5	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$6	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $651.98 · official $651.98 (match) · 35 history records