trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 58¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 39¢ | 38¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 25¢ | 26¢ | $8 | $8 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$2 | +15% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | +$2 | +24% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -72% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$6 | -99% |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? | Jan 24 | $200 | −$38 | -19% |
| Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 18 | $200 | +$44 | +22% |
| Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 16 | $200 | +$85 | +43% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -33.1% | -39.4% | 50% | 50% | -18.5% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -33.1% | -39.4% | 50% | 50% | -18.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -33.1% | -39.4% | 50% | 50% | -18.5% |
| all | 7 | -12.4% | -20.7% | 57% | 57% | +3.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.7% | 57% | +3.2% |
| 10% | -28.3% | 29% | -6.6% |
| 15% | -35.2% | 14% | -15.7% |
| 20% | -41.6% | 0% | -23.9% |