trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 in May? | Jun 02 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? | Jun 02 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 05 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | Apr 04 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Apr 03 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Giants draft Jalen Milroe? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 21 | -8.6% | -17.3% | 48% | 5% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.3% | 5% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -25.2% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -32.4% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -39.0% | 0% | -33.1% |