Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd926…6edb crypto 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-11%) realized −$223 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%267W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$83
world 23% −$93
other 19% −$44
weather 10% −$12
sports 2% −$13
politics 1% −$3
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -35.9% -42.0% 22% 17% -31.4%
≤30d 291 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 26% -15.3%
≤90d 291 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 26% -15.3%
all 433 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 27% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 27% -20.1%
10% -24.3% 19% -27.7%
15% -31.6% 14% -34.7%
20% -38.3% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$223
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses267 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)433 / 436
History coverage158d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 433 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$7 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL paiN 9¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $3.92 (match) · 1025 history records