Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd925…8ea0 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
world 36% +$2
politics 8% −$3
sports 6% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 +0.7% -8.8% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +0.7% -8.8% 38% 0% -9.0%
all 22 -4.6% -13.7% 32% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage473d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $64 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $33 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $2 $0 -5%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? May 07 $7 $0 -6%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Osc Mar 02 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $31 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $17 23h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $27 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $27 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $28 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $32 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $31 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $1 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $29 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $6 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $27 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $33 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records