Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

D9 0xd924…7bc2 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$32 (-9%) realized −$19 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day34.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-17.9%	-25.7%	41%	41%	+14.9%
≤30d	17	-17.9%	-25.7%	41%	41%	+14.9%
≤90d	17	-17.9%	-25.7%	41%	41%	+14.9%
all	17	-17.9%	-25.7%	41%	41%	+14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.7%	41%	+14.9%
10% ← realistic here	-32.8%	41%	+3.9%
15%	-39.3%	41%	-6.1%
20%	-45.2%	41%	-15.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -52% → late +12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$8 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$92

Realized−$19

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions8

Markets (closed)17 / 25

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day34.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Egypt leading at halftime?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$26	$26	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	49¢	70¢	$15	$22	+$7 (+44%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	43¢	44¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	31¢	24¢	$14	$11	−$3 (-24%)
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	Egypt	26¢	16¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-40%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	10¢	9¢	$5	$4	−$0 (-10%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Over	44¢	11¢	$15	$4	−$11 (-75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$25	+$23	+89%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$15	−$11	-70%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$27	+$23	+82%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$50	+$53	+105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners	Jun 22	$10	+$11	+109%
Uruguay leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$18	+$17	+93%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$12	−$12	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-99%
Belgium leading at halftime?	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$10	+$11	+105%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$16	+$13	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$48	1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5)	BUY Egypt	26¢	$10	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5	SELL Over	13¢	$5	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	52¢	$25	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$50	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$103	1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$24	2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5	BUY Over	41¢	$15	2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$14	2h
Egypt leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	45¢	$26	3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$27	3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$26	4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$21	4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	49¢	$15	4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	44¢	$15	5h
Uruguay leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners	BUY Over	47¢	$10	6h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	43¢	$15	7h
Uruguay leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	51¢	$18	7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$12	8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$15	8h
Belgium leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	52¢	$7	9h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$7	9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	26¢	$5	10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	36¢	$7	10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	34¢	$5	11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	13¢	$5	11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	54¢	$10	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.19 · official $92.19 (match) · 34 history records