Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd923…3d5d other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
other 19% −$1
culture 15% −$4
politics 12% +$1
sports 6% −$2
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 11% -9.2%
all 40 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $31 +$5 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $36 −$5 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $36 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 10 $7 $0 -3%
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be $7m or more Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sebastian-Constantin Popescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 31 $12 $0 +2%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $11 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Lakers Mar 02 $12 $0 -2%
Will Timothée Chalamet bring his mom to the Oscars? Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will "The Substance" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscar Mar 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $15 −$3 -22%
Fairfield vs. Sacred Heart Mar 02 $17 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $36 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $36 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $24 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $24 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $11 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $26 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 69¢ $31 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 25d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 41¢ $4 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.91 · official $35.91 (match) · 112 history records