Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd91e…a433 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$425 (-18%) realized −$427 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$636
14 days−$636
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$274
other 43% −$151
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -52.6% -57.1% 29% 29% -43.0%
≤30d 18 -44.8% -50.1% 33% 33% -26.0%
≤90d 25 -53.0% -57.4% 28% 28% -27.6%
all 25 -53.0% -57.4% 28% 28% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 28% -27.6%
10% -61.5% 28% -34.6%
15% -65.2% 24% -40.9%
20% -68.6% 20% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$61 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage33d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$72 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$48 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$69 +68%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $81 +$60 +74%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $302 +$97 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$267 +88%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Malcolm Wellmaker win by KO or TKO? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$42 +82%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $101 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $99 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $302 3d
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $171 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $141 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $50 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $102 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $400 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $302 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $571 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.82 · official $201.84 (match) · 40 history records