Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd91d…3b21 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$31 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 62% -1.9%
≤30d 24 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 62% -1.9%
≤90d 24 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 62% -1.9%
all 24 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 62% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 62% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 62% -11.3%
15% -25.3% 58% -19.9%
20% -32.6% 42% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$35 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 60¢ 64¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 57¢ 36¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $63 +$105 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $84 −$26 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $82 +$42 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$39 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$41 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $164 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $68 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.45 · official $42.86 (match) · 75 history records