Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd91b…2a8e other 53 markets active 11h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$17
other 44% −$15
world 4% −$4
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -15.9% -23.9% 35% 35% -12.0%
≤30d 44 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 39% -9.5%
≤90d 44 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 39% -9.5%
all 44 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% -9.5%
10% -29.5% 39% -18.2%
15% -36.3% 39% -26.1%
20% -42.6% 39% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -51%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ shots Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +236%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +78%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +121%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +82%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +150%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 11h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $3 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on BUY 45¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.10 · official $12.10 (match) · 76 history records