trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 25% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 11% | 0% | -10.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 11% | 0% | -10.8% |
| all | 25 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 40% | 0% | -12.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 0% | -12.6% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 0% | -20.9% |
| 15% | -27.5% | 0% | -28.6% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -35.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $30 | $29 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $38 | −$2 | -4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 02 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $12 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Jun 24 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 16 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Apr 16 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? | Apr 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 12 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| TikTok sale announced before May? | Apr 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4? | Mar 04 | $14 | −$7 | -47% |
| Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 04 | $16 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 04 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Trump say 'Epstein' during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 03 | $15 | $0 | -0% |