Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd916…87a0 other 16 markets active 1d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$179 (-6%) realized −$47 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$29
14 days−$32
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$35
other 43% −$113
crypto 7% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 12 -4.0% -13.2% 42% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 12 -4.0% -13.2% 42% 0% -11.1%
all 12 -4.0% -13.2% 42% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -11.1%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage22d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 81¢ $189 $171 −$18 (-9%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $118 $114 −$3 (-3%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $133 $114 −$19 (-14%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 71¢ 44¢ $149 $91 −$58 (-39%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 69¢ 44¢ $145 $91 −$53 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $168 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $317 −$4 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $230 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $362 −$27 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $378 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $197 +$1 +0%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -33%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $200 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $13 32h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 38h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 39h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $139 40h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $45 40h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 44h
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $189 2d
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $118 2d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $6 2d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $6 2d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $6 2d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 2d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $132 2d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $136 2d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 16¢ $34 2d
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $128 3d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 24¢ $5 3d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 24¢ $2 4d
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 59¢ $124 4d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL No 24¢ $0 4d
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? BUY No 23¢ $8 4d
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 71¢ $149 4d
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 69¢ $145 4d
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 60¢ $126 4d
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 4d
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $61 4d
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 15¢ $32 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $124 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $88 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $581.97 · official $582.01 (match) · 282 history records