Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd912…c515 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$8
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$19
other 39% +$30
crypto 5% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -46.5% -51.6% 25% 25% -11.6%
≤30d 20 -18.2% -26.0% 35% 25% -17.4%
≤90d 59 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 37% -10.9%
all 66 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 36% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 36% -11.6%
10% -24.1% 32% -20.0%
15% -31.4% 30% -27.7%
20% -38.1% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage197d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $30 $42 +$13 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +155%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $11 −$5 -47%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1 $0 -41%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $36 +$1 +3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $2 +$1 +70%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $2 +$2 +105%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 20 $12 +$1 +8%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $3 +$6 +203%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $2 +$4 +179%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $3 +$3 +84%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 30 $4 +$9 +213%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 29 $3 +$4 +129%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 28 $6 −$1 -17%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $2 +$1 +36%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 22 $6 −$3 -43%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $3 −$2 -50%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 08 $3 +$2 +68%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 07 $2 $0 +12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 24h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 24h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 37h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 12d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 22¢ $4 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 33¢ $5 27d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 55¢ $3 27d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 19¢ $1 28d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 26¢ $5 28d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 40¢ $6 28d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 33¢ $5 28d
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 25? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 29d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 43¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.38 · official $42.38 (match) · 236 history records