Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D9 0xd912…8975 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% $0
other 16% +$3
politics 9% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 22% 11% -9.6%
≤90d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 22% 11% -9.6%
all 43 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -9.1%
10% -17.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage464d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 −$3 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $13 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $12 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $19 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $16 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $22 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $53 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $31 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $22 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records