Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd910…713e crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+23%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$25
other 24% −$5
crypto 19% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.5% -3.7% 45% 36% -33.7%
≤30d 23 -18.7% -26.4% 30% 26% +1.1%
≤90d 23 -18.7% -26.4% 30% 26% +1.1%
all 23 -18.7% -26.4% 30% 26% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 26% +1.1%
10% -33.5% 26% -8.6%
15% -39.9% 26% -17.4%
20% -45.8% 17% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Under 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 −$13 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -34%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 +$40 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 7m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 9m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 40m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $9 41m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 47m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $16 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 50¢ $5 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.57 · official $4.57 (match) · 43 history records