Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd910…55a7 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,107 (-48%) realized −$8,105 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$672per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,479
7 days−$9,830
14 days−$9,830
30 days−$9,920
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$3,335
sports 34% −$5,550
crypto 11% −$1,037
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -48.9% -53.8% 29% 14% -84.2%
≤30d 23 -41.7% -47.2% 35% 26% -81.8%
≤90d 23 -41.7% -47.2% 35% 26% -81.8%
all 23 -41.7% -47.2% 35% 26% -81.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 26% -81.8%
10% -52.3% 17% -83.6%
15% -56.9% 17% -85.1%
20% -61.1% 13% -86.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -43% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$694 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$8,105
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage25d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $186 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $345 +$21 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $205 −$16 -8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $216 +$16 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $432 −$28 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$79 +76%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5,593 −$5,550 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$200 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,176 −$100 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,539 −$2,510 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $988 −$988 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? May 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9AM ET May 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8AM ET May 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $103 +$59 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET May 25 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $78 +$111 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $43 4m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $188 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $139 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $125 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $188 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $52 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $216 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 87¢ $189 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 13¢ $188 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $243 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.14 · official $227.14 (match) · 75 history records